20 Apr 2018 Why Do We Waste Time Predicting The Future?

Why Do We Waste Time Predicting The Future?

In January 2015 was there anyone who predicted that Donald Trump would be President in 2 years?  In 2000, did anyone predict that the World Trade Centers would be rubble in 2 years?  In 2004 did anyone predict that Barack Obama would be President?  No to each question. No one is good at looking 3-5 years ahead yet alone 10.   

When I was younger I was involved in a program where we simulated future military capabilities against a threat country.  They always made the bad guy to have extensive weapons in order to justify the investment in our new weapons.  These were scenarios that were 10-15 years in the future.  I asked did the organization that did the predicting go back 10 years to see what the bad guys were projected to have today?  In every case it was no.  If you did read the old reports it would show that they always overestimated.   

At the time Russia was the big threat.  Well, low and behold 3 years later Russia was no more.  No one predicted it, yet we spent billions on research for systems for a threat that did not materialize.

That was many years ago.  Has it changed? Not at all.  We still make the bad guys really bad so we can continue to fund huge research programs.  Why?  Because the money flows to business and those businesses employ people in some Congressman’s congressional district.  Every single congressman, and corresponding Senators, think that research is vital to national defense.

Massachusetts and Connecticut are considered liberal states.  However, if you try to cut the funding to the defense industry programs up there you would think the country would be in grave danger.  They always produce studies, funded by Congress, that support the need for the current and future weapons their businesses build.

Should you plan for the future?  Yes, planning is invaluable, but plans are useless. Nothing ever goes according to plan. You need to evaluate several alternatives but be ready execute based on real data.  Spending billions on long term predications is such a waste of money.

I hear the argument, “what if the bad guys come up with something that we can’t defend against?”  My answer to that is each bad guy is going to have some capability that is better than yours.  We need to develop a system that has the flexibility to adapt to changes.  It takes 15-20 years to develop and introduce a new ship or airplane into the military.  Why? Because the longer it takes to develop the more jobs are protected. 

Don’t try to predict the future.  Just have systems in-place that can be developed quickly, meaning 2-3 years.  Until we do that, we will continue to waste billions.