What Are Your Election Predictions?
Millions of dollars are spent on polls to predict elections. I still don’t understand how asking 700 people in a country of over 300 million gives you a statistically relevant sample to make a prediction. 2016 was a watershed election for pollsters in that the majority got it very wrong. Hillary Clinton was predicted to win big. She won the popular vote, not by a large margin but she lost the Electoral College.
The election today centers on Congress. Can the Democrats re-take the House of Representatives? Can the Republican hold the Senate? Most polls lean in the Democrats favor to take the House. I predict they will win big. I believe the energized progressive side of the party (i.e. young voters) will finally come out in large numbers to be a critical factor. Women will also swing very strongly for Democrats. Trump has alienated far too many people than he has energized. The demographics of the country are changing, and this election will be a bell weather for things to come. The real fun will be to see who the Dems pick for Speaker of the House. If the progressive wing comes out strong and influences the election, they will fight hard to not have Nancy Pelosi in charge. I still think she will win the speakership.
I predict the Republicans will hold the Senate. They will be happy for this as they will continue to confirm conservative judges which they value above all else.
These are all in line with current poll predictions.
President Trump will take no responsibility for any Republican losses. He will blame the candidates. I have no doubt he will also blame the press for anything negative. However, he will take all the credit for any victories
Any upset predictions? Ted Cruz will lose his Senate seat.
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