13 Feb 2018 Will China Support North Korea?

Will China Support North Korea?

There is a scene in The Godfather where a drug guy says that killing each other is bad for business.  North Korea puts China in this predicament.  It would be really bad for business if China allowed North Korea to start a military conflict with South Korea.  And don’t kid yourself, China has to allow it.  North Korea is a pesky fly vice a real power.  Could they inflict massive damage and carnage in the South, absolutely.  But win, no they can’t. 

China and the US have mutually dependent economies.  China tolerates the rants from North Korea as long as they don’t get too belligerent.   North Korea offers China nothing of a tangible benefit.  In years past, the communist dogma could be supported.  It is now a new age.  China is still a repressive and communist country in many respects, but, it also has capitalist ways and businesses.  Every major US company has a presence there.  China buys a lot of our debt that allows the US to fund a negative budget.  The US buys a lot of Chinese goods which employs untold millions there.  Any disruption in that transfer of goods and money would be “bad for business.”

North Korea is slowly imploding.  The privileged military class can’t sustain the blight it is causing on its people.  An act of a desperate group would be to start a war to bring to a conclusion what was started in 1950, the reunification of the Korean peninsula.   What North Korea does not realize or at least won’t accept is they can not win.  Their strategy may be it is better to go down in a blaze of “glory” vice being tried as criminals and spend their days in prison or executed.  

China will not come to North Koreas rescue as it did in 1950.  Only if South Korea invaded the North without provocation would China consider any support.  China allows North Korea to bellow, it would not allow it to fight.  The reunification of Korea will happen within the next 10-15 years.  The old guard in the North needs to die out.  May they try one last fight, maybe.  Would it end North Korea, no doubt.  Will the old guard be standing asking “Where are my Chinese brothers,” yes they will.  Will China care, not really.  It is just Bad for Business.