7 Mar 2018 What Do You Think Is Going To Happen?

What Do You Think Is Going To Happen?

At a global level I believe the following will happen in the next 5-10 years.  North and South Korea will unify.  There is still and old guard in North Korea that needs to die out.  China will not see this as a threat. It will be concerned but won’t stop it.  It will be chance to increase commerce with that area. China will try to get Korean leaders to be friendlier towards them than the USA.  It will be an economic challenge for South Korea as they will bear the brunt of the financial investment needed in the North.  This is similar to the cost to West Germany to integrate East Germany.

China will continue to grow as a global power.  However, as more and more youth see the world and gain more possessions, the hardline authoritative hand of the state will be harder to maintain. 

China is now described as our great threat militarily.  That is true for the local area around China. China does not have the resources to invade the US.  Yes, they can send ballistic missiles over, but that would just cause their own destruction.  The economies of China and the US are so intertwined that we need each other.  There may be “saber rattling” from both sides at times over various issues, but in the big picture we need to be at peace with them for both economies to survive.  We need their cheap goods and they need us to buy them to keep millions employed.    

Russia is not viewed in positive light today because Mr. Putin wants to act like a czar from old Russia.  The reality is Russia is historically tied to Europe and will remain so.  They may have greater economic ties with China, but strategically would side with Europe and the US if needed.

India will be the buffer with tensions any tensions between China and the US.  India’s economy is growing. They have over a billion people and are educating the masses.  The need for resources will only grow.  They will be great partners to have. 

Iran is the key country that the US has to build relations with.  For centuries Iran have been merchants and traders.  Just like China, as more and more young people see other parts of the world, they will demand more freedom. 

Islam will undergo a reformation similar to what the Catholic did several centuries ago.  It will be more of a religion vice a political institution.  Democracy in some form will gradually come to the Middle East.        

A Palestinian state will be established.  Israel will have to concede some land.  That won’t come easy but will be necessary.  A country of Palestine will lead to longer term peace in the Middle East.

These are some of my predictions for the near term future.