What Do You Think Is Going To Happen?
At a global level I believe the
following will happen in the next 5-10 years.
North and South Korea will unify.
There is still and old guard in North Korea that needs to die out. China will not see this as a threat. It will
be concerned but won’t stop it. It will
be chance to increase commerce with that area. China will try to get Korean
leaders to be friendlier towards them than the USA. It will be an economic challenge for South
Korea as they will bear the brunt of the financial investment needed in the
North. This is similar to the cost to
West Germany to integrate East Germany.
China will continue to grow as a
global power. However, as more and more
youth see the world and gain more possessions, the hardline authoritative hand
of the state will be harder to maintain.
China is now described as our great
threat militarily. That is true for the
local area around China. China does not have the resources to invade the
US. Yes, they can send ballistic missiles
over, but that would just cause their own destruction. The economies of China and the US are so
intertwined that we need each other.
There may be “saber rattling” from both sides at times over various
issues, but in the big picture we need to be at peace with them for both
economies to survive. We need their
cheap goods and they need us to buy them to keep millions employed.
Russia is not viewed in positive
light today because Mr. Putin wants to act like a czar from old Russia. The reality is Russia is historically tied to
Europe and will remain so. They may have
greater economic ties with China, but strategically would side with Europe and
the US if needed.
India will be the buffer with
tensions any tensions between China and the US.
India’s economy is growing. They have over a billion people and are
educating the masses. The need for
resources will only grow. They will be
great partners to have.
Iran is the key country that the US
has to build relations with. For
centuries Iran have been merchants and traders.
Just like China, as more and more young people see other parts of the
world, they will demand more freedom.
Islam will undergo a reformation
similar to what the Catholic did several centuries ago. It will be more of a religion vice a
political institution. Democracy in some
form will gradually come to the Middle East.
A Palestinian state will be
established. Israel will have to concede
some land. That won’t come easy but will
be necessary. A country of Palestine
will lead to longer term peace in the Middle East.
These are some of my predictions for
the near term future.
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